Main
Middleweight
Jacare Souza vs Derek Brunson
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
·Spectrum Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Derek Brunson
54%
46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
26-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-9
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Souza: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 8 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Derek Brunson
21
Sig strikes landed
22
36
Sig strikes attempted
40
36
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—