Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig vs Cortney Casey
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Cortney Casey
62%
38%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
33
Age
Δ 3y
31
15-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-10
W3
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Herrig: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Casey: 91 sig / 0 TD
Felice Herrig
Cortney Casey
38
Sig strikes landed
43
99
Sig strikes attempted
111
64
Total strikes landed
58
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
267s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
15-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
11-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—