Main
Middleweight
Michael Bisping vs Kelvin Gastelum
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum
·Mercedes-Benz Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Bisping
Kelvin Gastelum
65%
35%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
39
Age
Δ 13y
26
30-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-12
L1
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bisping: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Gastelum: 14 sig / 0 TD
Michael Bisping
Kelvin Gastelum
68
Sig strikes landed
63
164
Sig strikes attempted
148
84
Total strikes landed
72
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
74s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Bisping
"The Count"
30-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—