Prelims1
Lightweight
Jason Saggo vs Gilbert Burns
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Gilbert Burns
47%
53%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
12-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Saggo: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Burns: 42 sig / 2 TD
Jason Saggo
Gilbert Burns
26
Sig strikes landed
28
65
Sig strikes attempted
68
41
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason Saggo
12-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
L1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—