Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Bessette
Kurt Holobaugh
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Bessette: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Holobaugh: 47 sig / 0 TD
Matt Bessette
Kurt Holobaugh
35
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Bessette
"The Mangler"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31