Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kajan Johnson
Adriano Martins
36%
64%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
35
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
28-10
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Johnson: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Martins: 16 sig / 0 TD
Kajan Johnson
Adriano Martins
29
Sig strikes landed
24
62
Sig strikes attempted
64
46
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kajan Johnson
"Ragin'"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
L1
Adriano Martins
28-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—