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Prelims1 Lightweight

Thibault Gouti vs Andrew Holbrook

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve ·Ahoy Rotterdam
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Thibault Gouti
Andrew Holbrook
51% 49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
32
12-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-4
L3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gouti: 41 sig / 0 TD · Holbrook: 22 sig / 0 TD
Thibault Gouti
Andrew Holbrook
20
Sig strikes landed
29
42
Sig strikes attempted
50
35
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Thibault Gouti

"GT"
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
Blue corner
L1

Andrew Holbrook

12-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—