Main
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov vs Stefan Struve
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Stefan Struve
78%
22%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
84"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
41-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-13
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Volkov: 135 sig / 2 TD ·
Struve: 41 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkov
Stefan Struve
53
Sig strikes landed
37
76
Sig strikes attempted
103
70
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
W2
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—