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Prelims1 Flyweight

Naoki Inoue vs Carls John De Tomas

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Naoki Inoue
Carls John De Tomas
70% 30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
20
Age
Δ 1y
21

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Inoue: 62 sig / 0 TD · John De Tomas: 30 sig / 2 TD
Naoki Inoue
Carls John De Tomas
38
Sig strikes landed
31
79
Sig strikes attempted
63
57
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Naoki Inoue

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
Blue corner

Carls John De Tomas

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21