Lightweight
Josh Thomson vs Patricky Freire
Bellator 172: Fedor vs. Mitrione
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Patricky Freire
80%
20%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
38
Age
Δ 8y
31
23-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-8
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Thomson: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Freire: 15 sig / 0 TD
Josh Thomson
Patricky Freire
41
Sig strikes landed
47
123
Sig strikes attempted
114
54
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villa…
—
W
Bellator 142: Dynamite 1
—
Blue corner
W1
Patricky Freire
"Pitbull"
18-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Bellator 148: Daley vs. Uhrich
—
L
Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villa…
—
W
Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
—