Back to UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Prelims2 Middleweight

Garreth McLellan vs Paulo Costa

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Garreth McLellan
Paulo Costa
30% 70%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
34
Age
Δ 9y
26
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McLellan: 6 sig / 0 TD · Costa: 22 sig / 0 TD
Garreth McLellan
Paulo Costa
36
Sig strikes landed
40
73
Sig strikes attempted
85
54
Total strikes landed
59
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
202s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Garreth McLellan

"Soldier Boy"
13-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
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W UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
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Blue corner

Paulo Costa

"The Eraser"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26