🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Stephen Thompson
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
19-7-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-9-2
D1
Current streak
D1
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 5
Woodley: 54 sig / 1 TD ·
Thompson: 53 sig / 0 TD
Tyron Woodley
Stephen Thompson
42
Sig strikes landed
58
98
Sig strikes attempted
113
50
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
91s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
19-7-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
D1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—