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Prelims2 Welterweight

Bojan Velickovic vs Sultan Aliev

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson ·Golden 1 Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Bojan Velickovic
Sultan Aliev
61% 39%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
15-6-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-4
D1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Velickovic: 22 sig / 0 TD · Aliev: 15 sig / 2 TD
Bojan Velickovic
Sultan Aliev
31
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
70
52
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Bojan Velickovic

"Serbian Steel"
15-6-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
D UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
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W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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Blue corner
L1

Sultan Aliev

15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
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