🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Eddie Alvarez vs Conor McGregor
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Eddie Alvarez
Conor McGregor
65%
35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
28
30-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-6
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alvarez: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
McGregor: 32 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Alvarez
Conor McGregor
45
Sig strikes landed
68
114
Sig strikes attempted
145
62
Total strikes landed
77
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
180s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Eddie Alvarez
30-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—