Prelims2
Middleweight
Sam Alvey vs Alex Nicholson
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Alex Nicholson
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
34-18-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
8-4
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alvey: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Nicholson: 82 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Alex Nicholson
29
Sig strikes landed
25
70
Sig strikes attempted
63
38
Total strikes landed
28
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
44s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Nicholson
"The Spartan"
8-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—