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Prelims1 Featherweight

Enrique Barzola vs Kyle Bochniak

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Enrique Barzola
Kyle Bochniak
85% 15%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
18-5-2
Career record
Δ 15 pp
8-6
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barzola: 55 sig / 1 TD · Bochniak: 41 sig / 1 TD
Enrique Barzola
Kyle Bochniak
41
Sig strikes landed
25
98
Sig strikes attempted
68
71
Total strikes landed
41
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
7.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
303s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Enrique Barzola

"El Fuerte"
18-5-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
Blue corner
L1

Kyle Bochniak

"Killer B"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…