Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rick Story
Donald Cerrone
41%
59%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
20-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
37-17
W3
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Story: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Cerrone: 45 sig / 1 TD
Rick Story
Donald Cerrone
57
Sig strikes landed
57
117
Sig strikes attempted
126
77
Total strikes landed
62
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
W2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
21 fights · 17-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—