Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Conor McGregor
41%
59%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
23-13
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-7
W2
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 5
Diaz: 166 sig / 1 TD ·
McGregor: 164 sig / 0 TD
Nate Diaz
Conor McGregor
70
Sig strikes landed
69
146
Sig strikes attempted
137
91
Total strikes landed
75
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
57s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—