Main
Featherweight
Frankie Edgar vs Chad Mendes
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Chad Mendes
56%
44%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6
W4
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edgar: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendes: 5 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Chad Mendes
47
Sig strikes landed
50
119
Sig strikes attempted
116
77
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
189s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
L1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—