Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Nguyen
Ryan Benoit
67%
33%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
17-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nguyen: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Benoit: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ben Nguyen
Ryan Benoit
38
Sig strikes landed
26
76
Sig strikes attempted
93
44
Total strikes landed
29
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ben Nguyen
"Ten"
17-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Benoit
"Baby Face"
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—