Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Kelvin Gastelum
69%
31%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
32-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Magny: 54 sig / 6 TD ·
Gastelum: 54 sig / 2 TD
Neil Magny
Kelvin Gastelum
46
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
94
59
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
135s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—