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Shinsho Anzai vs Roger Zapata

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shinsho Anzai
Roger Zapata
68% 32%
Why
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Anzai: 23 sig / 2 TD · Zapata: 28 sig / 0 TD
Shinsho Anzai
Roger Zapata
28
Sig strikes landed
32
54
Sig strikes attempted
58
49
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Shinsho Anzai

"Animal"
10-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
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Blue corner

Roger Zapata

"Viva"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29