Women's Atomweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Jessica Penne
Invicta FC 5: Penne vs. Waterson
·Ameristar Casino Kansas City
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Jessica Penne
59%
41%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Waterson-Gomez: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Penne: 14 sig / 2 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Jessica Penne
35
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
100
55
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
W2
Jessica Penne
15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Invicta FC 3: Penne vs. Sugiyuma
—
W
Invicta FC 1: Coenen vs. Ruyssen
—