Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Penne
Naho Sugiyuma
79%
21%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Penne: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Sugiyuma: 19 sig / 1 TD
Jessica Penne
Naho Sugiyuma
44
Sig strikes landed
45
118
Sig strikes attempted
92
68
Total strikes landed
66
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jessica Penne
15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Invicta FC 1: Coenen vs. Ruyssen
—
Blue corner
Naho Sugiyuma
"Sugi Rock"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Age
35