Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Penne
Lisa Ellis
80%
20%
Why
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Penne: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Ellis: 31 sig / 4 TD
Jessica Penne
Lisa Ellis
46
Sig strikes landed
45
105
Sig strikes attempted
102
72
Total strikes landed
70
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jessica Penne
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Lisa Ellis
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
30