🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw vs Renan Barao
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Renan Barao
33%
67%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
28
19-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
35-9
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Dillashaw: 117 sig / 0 TD ·
Barao: 62 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Renan Barao
81
Sig strikes landed
79
188
Sig strikes attempted
188
112
Total strikes landed
93
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—