Prelims2
Middleweight
Kevin Casey vs Ildemar Alcantara
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
·Pechanga Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Casey
Ildemar Alcantara
35%
65%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
9-5-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-11
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Casey: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Alcantara: 20 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Casey
Ildemar Alcantara
18
Sig strikes landed
25
38
Sig strikes attempted
47
32
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kevin Casey
"King"
9-5-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ildemar Alcantara
"Marajo"
22-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—