Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Kozola
Ian Butler
95%
5%
Why
9-0
Career record
Δ 57 pp
3-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Steve Kozola
Ian Butler
50
Sig strikes landed
28
143
Sig strikes attempted
129
77
Total strikes landed
34
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
8.5
Takedowns attempted
4.3
1.00
Knockdowns
0.50
183s
Control time
-1s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Steve Kozola
9-0
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 132: Pitbull vs. Straus
—
Blue corner
L1
Ian Butler
3-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—