Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jesse Juarez
Ricky Rainey
64%
36%
Why
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Juarez: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Rainey: 30 sig / 0 TD
Jesse Juarez
Ricky Rainey
38
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
77
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jesse Juarez
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Ricky Rainey
"The Sniper"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
32