Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Daley
Andre Santos
71%
29%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Daley: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Santos: 29 sig / 4 TD
Paul Daley
Andre Santos
38
Sig strikes landed
40
99
Sig strikes attempted
107
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Andre Santos
"Chatuba"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"