Main
Middleweight
Lyoto Machida vs CB Dollaway
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
·Ginasio Jose Correa
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
CB Dollaway
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
31
24-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Machida: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Dollaway: 0 sig / 0 TD
Lyoto Machida
CB Dollaway
25
Sig strikes landed
27
57
Sig strikes attempted
62
35
Total strikes landed
40
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
W2
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—