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Kazuki Tokudome vs Johnny Case

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Kazuki Tokudome
Johnny Case
41% 59%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
25
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tokudome: 12 sig / 1 TD · Case: 13 sig / 0 TD
Kazuki Tokudome
Johnny Case
33
Sig strikes landed
38
86
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
57
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
210s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kazuki Tokudome

18-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
Blue corner

Johnny Case

"Hollywood"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25