Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Roy Nelson
34%
66%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
40
Age
Δ 2y
38
13-14-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-14
D1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hunt: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 20 sig / 1 TD
Mark Hunt
Roy Nelson
25
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
77
36
Total strikes landed
59
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
50s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13-14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—