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Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Claudia Gadelha vs Tina Lahdemaki

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller ·Revel Resort
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Tina Lahdemaki
74% 26%
Why
26
Age
Δ 0y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gadelha: 70 sig / 5 TD · Lahdemaki: 29 sig / 0 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Tina Lahdemaki
44
Sig strikes landed
33
87
Sig strikes attempted
79
77
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Claudia Gadelha

"Claudinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Tina Lahdemaki

"Jelly Bean"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26