Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Diego Brandao
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 10"
64"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
23-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-12
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McGregor: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Brandao: 9 sig / 0 TD
Conor McGregor
Diego Brandao
31
Sig strikes landed
21
82
Sig strikes attempted
60
43
Total strikes landed
30
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
L1
Diego Brandao
"DB"
22-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—