🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Lyoto Machida
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
17-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-8
W7
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Weidman: 65 sig / 5 TD ·
Machida: 58 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Lyoto Machida
38
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
66
42
Total strikes landed
37
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W2
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—