Prelims2
Welterweight
David Michaud vs Li Jingliang
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
David Michaud
Li Jingliang
52%
48%
Why
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Michaud: 41 sig / 3 TD ·
Jingliang: 61 sig / 2 TD
David Michaud
Li Jingliang
34
Sig strikes landed
39
70
Sig strikes attempted
82
49
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
119s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
David Michaud
"BullDawg"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26