Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Tonya Evinger
44%
56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McMann: 18 sig / 5 TD ·
Evinger: 8 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Tonya Evinger
40
Sig strikes landed
43
109
Sig strikes attempted
124
63
Total strikes landed
74
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sara McMann
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Tonya Evinger
"Triple Threat"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30