Back to ProElite 1: Arlovski vs. Lopez
Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann vs Raquel Pa'aluhi

ProElite 1: Arlovski vs. Lopez ·Blaidsdell Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Raquel Pa'aluhi
78% 22%
Why
31
Age
Δ 10y
21

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
McMann: 44 sig / 9 TD · Pa'aluhi: 22 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Raquel Pa'aluhi
41
Sig strikes landed
47
94
Sig strikes attempted
102
74
Total strikes landed
71
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
224s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sara McMann

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Raquel Pa'aluhi

"Rocky"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
21