Back to ONE FC 3: War of the Lions
Featherweight

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Donald Sanchez

ONE FC 3: War of the Lions ·Singapore Indoor Stadium

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Donald Sanchez
88% 12%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kawajiri: 4 sig / 1 TD · Sanchez: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Donald Sanchez
38
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
55
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
179s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

"Crusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner

Donald Sanchez

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
28