Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Sergio Pettis
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
26
Age
Δ 5y
20
22-15
Career record
Δ 20 pp
19-5
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Caceres: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Pettis: 49 sig / 1 TD
Alex Caceres
Sergio Pettis
46
Sig strikes landed
49
122
Sig strikes attempted
97
65
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—