Main
Middleweight
Jacare Souza vs Francis Carmont
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
·Arena Jaragua
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Francis Carmont
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
27-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-12
W2
Current streak
W6
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Souza: 16 sig / 2 TD ·
Carmont: 19 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Francis Carmont
19
Sig strikes landed
18
49
Sig strikes attempted
41
35
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
143s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W6
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
26-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—