Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Jake Shields
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
29-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-9-1
W3
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Maia: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Shields: 35 sig / 1 TD
Demian Maia
Jake Shields
37
Sig strikes landed
35
101
Sig strikes attempted
103
58
Total strikes landed
60
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
7.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
237s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Jake Shields
32-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—