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Roger Bowling vs Abel Trujillo

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 ·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Roger Bowling
Abel Trujillo
45% 55%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
12-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Bowling: 43 sig / 4 TD · Trujillo: 50 sig / 1 TD
Roger Bowling
Abel Trujillo
24
Sig strikes landed
37
56
Sig strikes attempted
74
43
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Roger Bowling

"Relentless"
12-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L1

Abel Trujillo

"Killa"
15-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—