Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Yves Jabouin
Dustin Pague
56%
44%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
20-12
Career record
Δ 12 pp
12-12
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Jabouin: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Pague: 15 sig / 1 TD
Yves Jabouin
Dustin Pague
28
Sig strikes landed
30
52
Sig strikes attempted
67
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
20-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
L2
Dustin Pague
"The Disciple"
12-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—