Prelims2
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens vs Estevan Payan
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Estevan Payan
66%
34%
Why
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
L3
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stephens: 49 sig / 6 TD ·
Payan: 25 sig / 0 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Estevan Payan
42
Sig strikes landed
35
94
Sig strikes attempted
85
57
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.70
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
Estevan Payan
"El Terrible"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31