🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs John Dodson
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
John Dodson
88%
12%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 22 pp
23-12
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Johnson: 127 sig / 5 TD ·
Dodson: 57 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
John Dodson
69
Sig strikes landed
48
150
Sig strikes attempted
134
88
Total strikes landed
61
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
200s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W3
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—