Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Yokthai Sithoar
99%
1%
Why
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aoki: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Sithoar: 0 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Yokthai Sithoar
49
Sig strikes landed
39
101
Sig strikes attempted
83
81
Total strikes landed
67
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Yokthai Sithoar
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
36