Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fedor Emelianenko
Pedro Rizzo
93%
7%
Why
36
Age
Δ 2y
38
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Emelianenko: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Rizzo: 0 sig / 0 TD
Fedor Emelianenko
Pedro Rizzo
48
Sig strikes landed
33
113
Sig strikes attempted
118
61
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.90
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Fedor Emelianenko
"The Last Emperor"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
M-1 Global - Fedor vs. Monson
—
Blue corner
Pedro Rizzo
"The Rock"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38