Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ronda Rousey
Sarah Kaufman
45%
55%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
13-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-4
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rousey: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Kaufman: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ronda Rousey
Sarah Kaufman
44
Sig strikes landed
26
120
Sig strikes attempted
86
63
Total strikes landed
53
2.2
Takedowns landed
2.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
120s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Ronda Rousey
"Rowdy"
13-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
Blue corner
W2
Sarah Kaufman
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—